A couple of recent experiences prompted me to write about probability and how it should affect one’s preparations. Prepping for Doomsday, SHTF, TEOTWAWKI, or other calamities might get a lot of attention but these events are all unlikely. It makes a lot more sense to prepare for likely events like the common cold instead.

Before you start laughing, the common cold is a serious problem. Every year there are over 60 million cases of the common cold in the USA, so your chances of catching one this year is around 20%. For the most part, the common cold is more of an annoyance than anything else, but it can interrupt your routine.

I caught my cold one week before Christmas and by the weekend I was feeling lousy. Thankfully, I was able to go to the office on Monday, get my laptop and spend most of the short week working from home. That allowed me to rest, drink lots of fluids, and stay away from others. Having a cold didn’t endanger me, but it prevented me from engaging in my normal activities. That is where the hidden costs of illness come into play.

Thankfully, I was able to recover and get some work done before Christmas. I had cough syrup, Emergen-C, cough drops, and plenty of fluids to drink at home so I was set. Thankfully I didn’t have to run to the drug store to grab anything when I was feeling lousy. In this case, having the items I needed on-hand aided in my recovery.

My suggestion is don’t waste your time preparing for doomsday, make a better use of your resources preparing for illness. You are much more likely to get ill than experience a total societal breakdown. Allocate your resources accordingly…