Unlike most preppers, I am not fixated on worst-case scenarios or cataclysmic events.  The End Of The World As We Know It (TEOTWAWKI) is an REM song for me, not an event that I plan for.

The End by Sluggomatic

Most of us have a finite amount of time and resources that we can devote to preparing.  Instead of planning for possible TEOTWAWKI scenarios like nuclear war, societal collapse, super volcanoes, killer asteroids, or others, focus on what is most likely to happen.  Having a doomsday redoubt in the woods with 10,000 rounds of ammunition and a year’s supply of food won’t be of much use when the power goes out.

So what sort of events should one plan for?  Much of that will depend upon geography and weather patterns.  A family in rural North Dakota needs to be ready for winter storms and extreme cold weather whereas a family living in the Los Angeles Basin needs to be prepared for earthquakes and wildfires.  Besides natural factors, consider the location of military bases, chemical refineries, railroad tracks, pipelines, dams, manufacturing plants, nuclear generating stations, and other facilities in your plans.  Knowing the possible threats will allow you to accurately assess which ones need to be accounted for in your preparations.  Here are lists of both natural and man-made disasters, take a look at the items listed in each to see which ones may apply where you live.

Natural Disasters

• Avalanche
• Blizzard
• Earthquake
• Flooding
• Hail
• Hurricane
• Impact Event
• Mudslide
• Severe Weather
• Tornado
• Tsunami
• Wildfire
• Volcanic Eruptions

Man-made Disasters

• Air Pollution
• Aircraft crash
• Chemical Spill
• Dam Failure
• Fire/Arson
• Gas Leak
• Hazardous Materials Spill
• Industrial Accident
• Radiation
• Train Wreck
• Water Contamination

No matter where you live though, there are some threats that everybody faces.  Its almost impossible to avoid crime where human civilization exists.  No matter where you live, there are always criminals that will prey upon others.  The same is true for vehicle accidents.  With over 100 million cars on the road, your chances of being involved in an accident sometime during your lifetime are very high.  Don’t forget seasonal illnesses like influenza and other viruses that can wreak havoc on your health.  Keep in mind that the 1918 Flu Pandemic killed more people than World War One!  Your chances of encountering these are much higher than a cataclysmic TEOTWAWKI event:

• Crime
• Influenza
• Vehicle accidents

Most of us don’t think about the infrastructure we depend upon to deliver civilization.  We flip a switch and lights go on;  we turn a faucet and water comes out;  we go to an ATM and get cash when we need it.  What happens when these services are interrupted or halted for more than a few hours?

• Electrical power
• Emergency services
• Financial services
• Food production and distribution
• Government
• Petroleum and natural gas
• Telecommunications
• Transportation
• Water treatment and distribution

Technology has played an increasing role in civilization over the past few decades.  However, there are vulnerabilities that can be exploited either by nation-states or skilled individuals which can cause havoc or compromise data.  Even without malicious intent, systems can fail or suffer performance degradation that makes them worthless until they are repaired.  Consider the following technological mishaps that could happen:

• Computer virus/worm/trojan horse
• Connectivity failure
• Data compromise
• Data loss
• Errors and system crashes
• Hardware failure
• Performance degradation

There are also troubling personal events that can strike with little to no warning.  Ask yourself how prepared are you for one of these events:

• Death in the family
• Disability
• Illness
• Injury
• Job Loss

The point is people get worked-up talking about TEOTWAWKI even though the probability of it happening is exceedingly low.  Instead of focusing on unlikely events, turn your attention to calamities that actually take place.  This is a better use of your time and effort, which will lead to more effective preparation for you and your family.

Update:  For your viewing pleasure…